While trying to predict the outcome of the upcoming state and local elections is frequently a fool's game, based on what’s happened in several recent Republican primaries, they are leaving no stone unturned in rigging the outcome, starting with the recent Prince Williams County BOS “firehouse primary.”
According to VPAP, the Republican incumbent Marty Nohe raised a whopping $131 K in the first quarter of 2019, while the challenger, and “winner” John Gray raised self funded himself to the tune of $12,500, deeds which leave the voters of the Coles District with a hard-core Trumpster who is not likely to represent them.
If the comments on Nohe’s FB page are any indication, his Republican supporters are passively accepting this rigged process, while his Democratic supporters are calling this primary “voter suppression.”
With one commentator noting; “I many others were turned away because we voted in a Democratic primary in the past and they had the records of it right there. We were told the only way we could vote was to sign a 'denunciation' letter which in effect was denouncing being a Democrat. “
”There is no ‘party registration’ in Virginia and I was livid over this as were others who raised very strong objections. The lady told us that since this primary was ‘run’ by the Republicans and not a State or Federal primary that we could not vote.”
During the recent Culpeper BOS primary, local Replican’ts tried to block several people from voting, claiming this was a “Republican primary, for Republicans.” After forcing one sitting one voter to sit through an interrogation then asking them to sign a waiver stating I "promise to vote for the GOP in November," before they would allow her to vote, an offer which she and others refused.
From all appearances, the only reason they “allowed” Democrats to vote in this primary was because they knew their rights, stood up for them and wouldn’t be intimidated. If people don’t know and exercise their rights, Replican’t around the state will continue to try and suppress the vote by any means necessary.
Apparently, the Replican’ts motto is “If you can’t beat them, cheat them.”
At the state level, the 97th House District Republican Convention was another exercise in fixed outcomes. One that from all reports featured a bitter fight between the 97th HOD Committee and the State Party, where the Committee Chair walked out of a meeting after being questioned by a fellow Committee member about the validity of this convention.
It's a game we have seen before, with the 2017 State Republican convention selecting the extreme Cory Steward and E.W. Jackson at their standard bearers.
Meanwhile over in the 11th Senate race, featuring “Church Lady” Amanda Chase, where despite a self induced meltdown with the Capital Police, she refuses to back down or apologize even though there is an audiotape and video of what happened. Going so far as to publicly demand an “apology” while playing the “victim” on her FB page with multiple posts of how unfairly she’s being treated.
Even after publicly lashing out at the Senate GOP Caucus and majority leader Tommy Norment, the biggest financial “rainmaker” in the Party, it doesn’t appear to have appreciably shifted her chances of being re-elected.
Nor was it any surprise to see her emulating her mentor Dave Brat deeds whose 2014 campaign she managed, actively block users and deleting unfavorable comments on her FB page.
Perhaps the biggest reason the Church Lady “doth protest too much,” is this observation posted on another Republican's FB page … “As a former Chesterfield Republican (I served on the Executive Committee of the Chesterfield GOP for 4 years), I have seen Amanda from a slightly different angle than you.
Let me say this unequivocally: Amanda has more to fear from the political enemies she's made over the years than she does from any Average Joe, and she knows this.”
Along with this now deleted comment, from her public Facebook page.
“First off you're a liar. I’m a Republican. I've seen you personally throw your weight around with the police officers and dispatchers. There are logs and phone calls where you made Capitol police your very own personal taxi service. Driving you to hospitals, bars, restaurants, back and forth for your own personal usage and having nothing to do with your official duties. Your parking deck is literally across the road where there are 2 security guards patrolling it everyday, Monday thru Friday.”
Nor is it surprising to hear rumors that State Senator Bryce Reeves, and State Delegate Nick Frietas helped orchestrate this entire affair in a effort to discredit and discourage her from running in the 7th Congressional District race against Abigail Spanberger in 2020.
It’s no secret that both of them are anxious to move up to higher levels of incompetence, I mean influence having both run in the 2017 Republican State Convention, before losing out to even more extreme candidates, or that they have previously indicated an interest in running against Abigail in 2020.
While an overblown sense of privileged entitlement is hardly exclusive to Replican’ts judging by what took place at the end of the Arlington Democratic 31st District Senate debate. It’s worth noting that to Senator Favola’s credit, she had the decency to apologize at their next public debate, something which Replican’ts at every level seem constitutional incapable of.
Finally moving down to the only state elections where the residents of Louisa County have any direct say; the 17th Senate and the 56th House races. Leaving out the 22nd Senate race since Louisa’s two flaming red precincts contain such a small % of that Districts voters that their votes will hardly affect the outcome.
According our local paper, the Central Virginian, Democratic candidate Amy Laufer has a substantial fundraising advantage over Ben Hixon, raising over $ 110 K during the first quarter of 2019, yet still lags behind the incumbent, Bryce Reeves first quarter totals. Reeves has accumulated ~ $ 218 K in his war chest over the course of two terms as a Senator, and is expected to handily beat his Republican opponent in the June 11th primary.
Given his close connections with Senator Norment, and the now departed 7th District Congressman Dave Brat, Reeves likely sees him self as a “rainmaker,” along the lines of Eric Cantor, serving as a pretty boy mouth piece for the party, raising money which can be readily funneled throughout the Party food chain.
Despite starting her campaign late, Juanita Jo Matkins the Democrat running for the 56th House of Delegates seat has doubled incumbent, John McGuire's 2019 first quarter efforts. Unlike Reeves, "Lil John" has little money left over from his previous campaign, making this seat competitive for the first time in decades.
The biggest question is whether Democrats are fielding enough competitive candidates in the House and Senate to make it difficult for candidates like Bryce Reeves, and Republican PAC’s to keep sending their “excess” funds downstream to endangered state Replican’ts.
And it's something we all should expect to see more of, given what's already happened in other local county races this year, and what happened during the 2017 Mineral District race when Replican't candidate Duane Adams ran against Stephanie Koren.
Where the local media failed to report the fact that his son worked for Senator Reeves, or notice Reeves close relationship with the Party’s fundraising arm. And how it resulted in an “unprecedented” deed, a local race being “gifted” with ~ $25K worth of misleading fliers from the State Party.
Not only did they fail to inform their readers why such actions were "unprecedented" they completely ignored the reality that this Party sponsored propaganda was a major reason why he won. Nor was it any “coincidence” to read in a recent edition of the CV that Adams is returning the favor this year, making two large contributions to Senator Bryce Reeves campaign.
Meanwhile there continue to be persistent rumors that now that the deadline for filing under a party banner has passed, that the county Replican'ts plan to run stealth RINO candidates for Supervisors races, and possibly other county positions, like they are doing in other counties all over the state.
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